Nuclear verdicts: A US trend with global implications

Litigation risk in the United States (US) has evolved into a strategic threat. Jury awards exceeding $10 million, so-called “nuclear verdicts”, are no longer rare. In 2024 alone, according to recent research published by Marathon Strategies, 135 verdicts crossed the $10 million threshold, totaling $31.3 billion, with “thermonuclear” awards over $100 million rising sharply. No industry is immune as 55 different industries were affected last year. Product liability awards lead, but intellectual property, trade secrets, antitrust, and employment disputes are catching up.

This surge is driven by “social inflation”, which reflects economic, cultural, and legal shifts. Its drivers include sophisticated plaintiffs’ strategies, growing anti-corporate sentiment among younger jurors, misaligned defence approaches and the normalization of massive awards through media and cultural trends. 

While this is primarily a US jury-trial phenomenon, its repercussions extend globally: insurers and multinational corporations face rising premiums, unpredictable litigation costs and pressure on reserves. European businesses with US exposure, and increasingly those operating in the European Union (EU), must anticipate similar dynamics influencing settlement expectations and litigation attitudes.

Impact on global businesses

The financial and operational impact is significant: rising insurance premiums, diminished predictability of litigation costs and increased pressure to settle. US litigation can destabilize global operations, strain capital allocation and influence settlement expectations and legal norms across Europe and the EU. In short, risk management strategies must evolve to address a reality where American verdict trends reverberate internationally.

Ed Casmere, Co-Head of Litigation and Disputes at Norton Rose Fulbright, notes:

"So-called nuclear verdicts presents tremendous risks to companies, and successfully managing that risk necessarily diverts a company’s finite resources and undermines its ability to invest in its core business mission."

5 key takeaways businesses should start thinking about now

1. Proactive risk management remains essential to safeguard financial stability and operational resilience. Start by auditing your litigation exposure and identifying high-risk areas such as product liability and IP disputes. 
2. Litigation strategy: Early and regular case assessment is key to decide whether to settle, go to trials, or manage public messaging. 
3. Invest in jury research and development of trial strategy early, understand juror sentiment and tailor defence narratives to resonate with community values. 
4. Elevate trial presentation beyond technical arguments; persuasive, human-centred storytelling is essential.
5. Finally, engage experienced trial counsel before cases escalate and monitor verdict trends globally to anticipate spillover effects in Europe.

The message is clear: litigation risk is now a global strategic issue, not a localized one. Companies that act early, by auditing exposure, reinforcing insurance, and adapting defense strategies, will be better positioned to protect financial stability and reputation in an increasingly volatile environment.