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As we put this issue to bed, the media is replete with stories regarding the timing of the next recession. But a recession is anything but a sure thing. As discussed in Blackstone’s 2019 Fourth Quarter Report, the indicators are decidedly mixed. There are signs of an impending recession: GDP growth in the US is slowing as the effects of 2017 tax reform wear off. And the most reliable recession signal is “flashing”, as the ten-year to two-year Treasury yield spread is inverted – which was the case before each of the past five recessions. But, conversely, consumer income and spending continue to grow, and the household debt burden remains low. So the signs of an upcoming recession in the US are decidedly ambiguous.
Globally, however, Blackstone reports that the economic outlook is dimming. Growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 have been revised downward and, without a Brexit agreement, UK GDP growth is expected to be 2.5 percent lower through 2023. Further complicating the picture in the US is the enormous political uncertainty caused by the pending impeachment proceedings. And the trade war between the US and China is directly impacting China’s growth which has been largely fueled by trade with the US.
With all of this global economic uncertainty, what better time to read the current issue of our International Restructuring Newswire, with articles from four different countries of the Norton Rose Fulbright network.
With this issue we welcome our new editor, David Rosenzweig. David is a Norton Rose Fulbright partner in the New York office and focuses his practice on cross-border restructurings and insolvencies.
Enjoy the issue.
Financial Restructuring and Insolvency
© Norton Rose Fulbright LLP 2020