The latest IPCC reports: Impacts, adaption and mitigation

Background to the IPPC's reports

The IPCC is considered to be the authoritative international body on climate science. Using the WGII Report as an example, at least 270 climate change experts contributed and reviewed over 34,000 peer reviewed publications. The IPCC’s work is used as a driving force for action, influencing international agreements and domestic governments’ climate policies. IPCC Reports regularly inform international climate negotiations such as the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The IPCC releases its Assessment Reports every 5-8 years comprised of reports contributed by different Working Groups. The IPCC releases periodic assessment reports, during which authors assess thousands of published scientific papers and comprehensively summarise the drivers of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and the role of adaptation and mitigation. In this Sixth Assessment (AR6):

1. Working Group I – released its report in October focussed on the physical science of climate change and projections for future warming. 
2. Working Group II – the AR6 Report was released in March 2022 which we have summarised below. The last report from WGII was in 2014 in the Fifth Assessment (AR5).
3. Working Group III – the AR6 Report was released in April 2022 which we have summarised below. The last report from WGIII was in 2014 during AR5.
4. The final Synthesis Report will be the last of the AR6 publications, and it is scheduled to be released in September 2022.²

AR5 provided the scientific input that was used in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. The findings of WGI for AR6 were presented to parties at COP26 in Glasgow and were the basis of discussions about evidence-based climate policy formulation.³

The IPCC also releases additional ‘special’ reports outside the standard assessment cycle, such as the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC which received significant attention following the COP26 last year.

Key findings from the WGII report

1. The window of opportunity to mitigate the worst effects of climate change is closing rapidly. 
2. All life on Earth, from ecosystems to human civilisation, is vulnerable to a changing climate. 
3. Since AR5, a wider range of impacts can be attributed to climate change and many species are reaching the limit of their ability to adapt to climate change.⁴
4. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier – as the effects of climate change deteriorate further, these impacts are compounding and cascading, meaning our ability to respond is under even greater pressure. 
5. The effectiveness of adaptation decreases with every increment of warming, meaning that successful adaptation requires more urgent and accelerated action to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Key findings from the WGIII report

1. Average annual GHG emissions during 2010-2019 were higher than in any previous decade. However, the rate of growth between 2010 and 2019 was lower than that between 2000 and 2009.
2. Based on the NDCs announced prior to COP26, the world is on track to exceed 1.5^oCwarming during the 21^st century. NDCs refer to a country’s Nationally Determined Contributions which require the country to prepare, communicate and maintain their own specific intentions to reduce emissions. Limiting warming to below 2^oC would rely on a rapid acceleration of mitigation efforts after 2030.
3. Without a strengthening of policies, modelled pathways indicate that GHG emissions are projected to rise beyond 2025, leading to a median global warming of 3.2^oC by 2100.
4. All modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5^oC involve a rapid and deep reduction in emissions across all sectors. Limiting warming to around 1.5^oC requires GHG emissions to peak before 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030.
5. Reducing GHG emissions in the energy sector requires major transitions, including a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, the deployment of low-emission energy sources, and energy efficiency.
6. Accelerated and equitable climate action is critical to sustainable development. Policies that shift development pathways towards sustainability can enable the achievement of development objectives and climate mitigation.
7. There are mitigation options which are feasible to deploy at scale now. Regulatory and economic instruments can support deep emissions reduction and stimulate innovation when scaled up.

Findings specific to Australasia

The WGII Report contained an entire chapter on Australasia as part of its regional assessments of ecosystems and biodiversity, and humans and their diverse societies. That chapter described how climate change is bringer hotter temperatures, more droughts and floods, more dangerous fire weather, higher sea levels, and reinforces what many Australians have experienced over the past two years following particularly devastating bushfires and floods on the east coast. 

Climate trends and extreme events have had major impacts on many natural systems, with some experiencing or at risk of irreversible change.⁵

The authors are also clear about the impact climate change is having on humans, such as: 

• increasing socio-economic costs;
• extreme heat causing death and illness;
• droughts causing financial and emotional stress; and
• tourism being affected by coral bleaching, fires, poor ski seasons, and receding glaciers.⁶

The nine key risks to Australasia identified by the IPCC are summarised is this fact sheet from WGII.

Looking ahead, ongoing warming is projected with consequent sea-level rise and ocean acidification. More extreme fire and drought conditions are predicted in southern and eastern Australia. It is projected that climate risks will increase for a wide range of systems, exacerbated by underlying vulnerabilities. Some of these key risks included the loss of coral reefs, loss of alpine biodiversity, declines in agricultural production due to hotter and drier conditions, and an increase in heat-related mortality and morbidity for people and wildlife due to increased heatwaves.

Hopeful considerations

The reports do provide some hope in the form of a range of incremental and transformative options available, as long as enablers are in place to implement them. Key enablers include shifting from reactive to anticipatory planning, government leadership, coordination across all levels of government and sectors, nationally consistent and accessible information, adaptation funding and finance, and strategic policy commitment. IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee said during the press release of WGIII that “we are at a crossroads…we have the tools and know-how required to limit warming”. If effective policies, regulations, and market instruments are scaled up, they can support deep emissions reduction and stimulate innovation.

Other international environmental updates

At the recent UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-5), 175 nations endorsed a historic resolution to End Plastic Pollution and forge an international legally binding agreement by 2024. The resolution addresses the full lifecycle of plastic including its production, design, and disposal. The Executive Director of UNEP describes this resolution as the “most significant environmental multilateral deal since the Paris Accord”.⁷  Other resolutions agreed to at UNEA-5 focused on sustainable lake management, nature-based solutions to support sustainable development, and enhancing the circular economy.

Climate change and sustainability at Norton Rose Fulbright

We are an acknowledged leader in climate change and sustainability, with deep experience of assisting our clients to navigate the evolving patchwork of international policy and regulation in the areas of climate change and sustainability, ESG and sustainable finance, led by Elisa de Wit.

Our global multidisciplinary team works with clients to navigate continually evolving climate change and sustainability policies and regulations across the globe, identifying and exploiting the significant opportunities presented, as well as mitigating and managing risks.

This update was compiled by our Pro Bono Team in Australia. Environment and Sustainability is one of the key pillars of our pro bono strategy. Please contact Chris Owen, Partner and Pro Bono Team leader is you would like to discuss climate change issues for you or your business. 

The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Kelsey Gray to this article.