Looking ahead to the ‘Forest COP’: Expectations for COP30

Introduction

Next week, governments will convene in Belem, Brazil for “COP30”, which will take place between 10-21 November. Short for the 30^th “Conference of the Parties”, this summit is the annual meeting of the supreme decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The UNFCCC COPs are the most consequential global forum for climate governance and clients should expect a range of significant announcements and decisions to be made over the two-week period. This is especially so this year as COP30 marks the ten-year anniversary of the 2015 Paris Agreement and the conclusion of this Agreement’s first full implementation cycle.

This article provides a summary of the COP process, the expected outcomes of COP30 and how Norton Rose Fulbright will be covering the COP30 developments in the coming weeks.

What is a UNFCCC “COP”?

The UNFCCC was signed in 1992 with the stated objective of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. At the heart of the UNFCCC is the COP, its supreme decision-making body, which convenes annually to assess the implementation of the convention and any legal instruments adopted under it, such as the Paris Agreement.¹

COP decisions carry significant weight as they can establish new international obligations in relation to, amongst other things, decarbonisation, carbon markets, emissions reporting, climate resilience and loss and damage (a mechanism for Global South countries to receive compensatory payments for losses already incurred owing to the consequences of the climate crisis).

Beyond the formal COP decision-making, governments and other entities frequently use the COP summits as an opportunity to make other climate-related announcements, including launching new initiatives, making financial pledges or raising awareness for specific issues and campaigns. These can each have potentially far-reaching legal and commercial implications.

Key expectations for COP30

Context for this year’s COP

Whilst not every COP is a landmark summit, some consider that COP30 will be significant. Primarily, this is because it is the ten-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement, which committed Parties to aim to keep the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C and well below 2°C. The recent Global Stocktake (ie the assessment of the world’s progress on these targets) suggested we are off-track and will need to raise ambition to achieve these goals.

The synthesis report prepared by the UNFCCC Secretariat on Parties’ updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) found that whilst 98 per cent of Parties have communicated domestic mitigation measures and there is deeper engagement from civil society to achieve this, the overarching message is that “Parties are bending their combined emission curve further downward, but still not quickly enough”.² This is clear as 2024 was the first year in which the global average temperature surpassed 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.³

The “State of Climate Action 2025” report, prepared by the World Resources Institute, found that in every single sector, climate action has failed to materialise at the level required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals and none of the 45 indicators are on track to reach the 1.5 degrees target.⁴

The urgency of what is required was mirrored in the statement of Simon Stiell, the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, in response to the NDC synthesis report. He stated that in advancing the Paris Agreement, we “must work much faster and fairer, and that acceleration must start now”.⁵

Ahead of this year’s summit, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago released his own letters to the international community. These align with the COP30 themes – the most recent letter called for this to be a “major inflection” on adaptation⁶  and prior letters focused on implementing the Global Stocktake outcomes.⁷  These letters note that COP30 will be a “Global Mutirão”, a concept that refers to a community coming together and is inherited from Brazil’s Indigenous Peoples.

Expectations for this year’s COP

Below are some key themes and expected developments for COP30.

Updated NDCs

Countries are required under the Paris Agreement to submit updated (and more ambitious) NDCs every five years, with 2025 being a submission year. Whilst currently only 67 countries have submitted their updated NDCs, it is expected that a significant number of countries will make their submissions during COP itself.⁸  In their updated NDCs, countries are expected to strengthen their emission reduction targets, broaden the sectors covered by their NDCs, and introduce more robust climate disclosure frameworks.

Adaptation, loss and damage, and the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)

The GGA was established under Article 7 of the Paris Agreement. It calls for the enhancement of adaptive capacity, strengthening of resilience and reduction in vulnerability to climate change. A key focus of the COP30 negotiations will be to agree on the indicators for measuring progress towards the GGA, which are expected to be adopted in Brazil. Furthermore, it is likely that more countries will submit their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), which set out what each country is doing domestically to progress the GGA (currently only 78 countries have submitted their NAP).

Climate Finance and the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF)

Finance remains a cornerstone of the COP30 negotiations, with a renewed emphasis on aligning global financial flows to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. A standout initiative is the TFFF, a Brazil-led blended finance mechanism designed to reward tropical nations for forest-related conservation efforts. The proposal seeks to compensate countries for preserving tropical forests, with 20 per cent of funds reserved specifically for payments to Indigenous Peoples.⁹  Brazil is aiming for developed countries to pledge $20 billion to the TFFF at COP30 so that a further $100 billion in private finance can also be leveraged.

Energy transition and fossil fuel phase-out

COP30 is expected to reinforce global targets established at COP29 to triple renewable energy capacity and to double energy efficiency by 2030, while accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. Progress toward these goals will be advanced by policies to incentivise the development of more efficient technologies, accelerate electrification and install more solar and wind power generation (in each instance, aided where possible by appropriate carbon pricing mechanisms and just-transition frameworks).

Nature, forests, and biodiversity linkages

With COP30, nicknamed the ‘forest COP’ taking place in the heart of the Amazon, nature-based solutions and biodiversity are expected to receive a lot of attention.¹⁰  Anticipated outcomes include new commitments on forest protection (connected to the TFFF – see above), ecosystem-based mitigation, and integrated nature and biodiversity workstreams. These developments are likely to spur regulatory innovation around nature-based solutions, ecosystem service valuation, and deforestation-free supply chains.

How we are covering COP30

Norton Rose Fulbright is actively monitoring the lead-up to COP30 and will be closely engaged throughout the conference. We will provide regular updates during the event from our team on the ground in relation to developments in the negotiations and sideline announcements.

Following the conference, we will provide reflections on COP30 via a comprehensive COP round-up legal update and a webinar, which will unpack the most significant outcomes. All resources, including commentary and recordings, will be available via our COP30 portal.