The latest IPCC Reports – Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation

Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released the latest parts of the Sixth Assessment Report (Report). Working Group II (WGII) assessed the impacts of climate change with a focus on the vulnerabilities, capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change. Its report documents new findings on the way that current global warming of 1.1oC is impacting both natural and human systems, and how our ability to respond narrows with every additional increment of warming.¹ Working Group III (WGIII) focused on climate change mitigation processes and pledges, critically assessing the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals. Its report was clear that we need to act urgently, but it also provided hope by outlining options to do so.

Background to the IPCC’s reports

The IPCC is considered to be the authoritative international body on climate science. Using the WGII Report as an example, at least 270 climate change experts contributed and reviewed over 34,000 peer reviewed publications. The IPCC’s work is used as a driving force for action, influencing international agreements and domestic governments’ climate policies. IPCC Reports regularly inform international climate negotiations such as the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

AR5 provided the scientific input that was used in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. The findings of WGI for AR6 were presented to parties at COP26 in Glasgow and were the basis of discussions about evidence-based climate policy formulation.²

Key findings from the WGII Report

• The window of opportunity to mitigate the worst effects of climate change is closing rapidly.
• All life on Earth, from ecosystems to human civilisation, is vulnerable to a changing climate.
• Since AR5, a wider range of impacts can be attributed to climate change and many species are reaching the limit of their ability to adapt to climate change.³
• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier – as the effects of climate change deteriorate further, these impacts are compounding and cascading, meaning our ability to respond is under even greater pressure.
• The effectiveness of adaptation decreases with every increment of warming, meaning that successful adaptation requires more urgent and accelerated action to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Key findings from the WGIII Report

1. Average annual GHG emissions during 2010-2019 were higher than in any previous decade. However, the rate of growth between 2010 and 2019 was lower than that between 2000 and 2009.
2. Based on the NDCs announced prior to COP26, the world is on track to exceed 1.5oC warming during the 21st century. NDCs refer to a country’s Nationally Determined Contributions which require the country to prepare, communicate and maintain their own specific intentions to reduce emissions. Limiting warming to below 2oC would rely on a rapid acceleration of mitigation efforts after 2030.
3. Without a strengthening of policies, modelled pathways indicate that GHG emissions are projected to rise beyond 2025, leading to a median global warming of 3.2oC by 2100.
4. All modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5oC involve a rapid and deep reduction in emissions across all sectors. Limiting warming to around 1.5oC requires GHG emissions to peak before 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030. Findings specific to Australasia

The WGII Report contained an entire chapter on Australasia as part of its regional assessments of ecosystems and biodiversity, and humans and their diverse societies. That chapter described how climate change is bringer hotter temperatures, more droughts and floods, more dangerous fire weather, higher sea levels, and reinforces what many Australians have experienced over the past two years following particularly devastating bushfires and floods on the east coast.

Climate trends and extreme events have had major impacts on many natural systems, with some experiencing or at risk of irreversible change.⁴

The nine key risks to Australasia identified by the IPCC are summarised is this fact sheet from WGII.

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This update was compiled by our Pro Bono Team in Australia. Environment and Sustainability is one of the key pillars of our pro bono strategy. Please contact Chris Owen, Partner and Pro Bono Team leader is you would like to discuss climate change issues for you or your business.

The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Kelsey Gray to this article.